India’s FOB drill-bit assessment fell another 6.5% on Thursday, October 29, taking the two-week fall to 15.9%. China’s drill scrap price is up 5.5% on the week. The India premium over China is now -3.5%, the first negative reading since June 10 and the second-lowest of the year (the low was -3.8% on April 2). China’s scrap rod price has been flat for five sessions after rising 31% off its low.
The Index
| Scrap | Week | Since Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|
| India FOB drill bits 90%+ | -6.5% | -15.9% |
| India FOB inserts | 0.0% | -11.3% |
| China drill scrap | +5.5% | +24.3% |
| China carbide rod scrap | +10.1% | +30.9% |
| Europe drill and insert scrap, Rotterdam APT | Flat | Flat |
| India FOB drill bits, premium over China drill scrap | Oct 15 | Oct 23 | Oct 30 | Median, Apr–Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | 42.7% | 8.9% | -3.5% | 22% |
Only 2% of the 136 sessions this year had a lower premium. Last week’s article said closed premiums had always reopened within ten sessions. Six sessions have passed and the premium has gone the other way. Background: The India premium has closed.
| China domestic | Oct 15 | Oct 23 | Oct 30 | Since Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolframite 65% (RMB/t) | 305,000 | 330,000 | 350,000 | +14.8% |
| APT spot (RMB/t) | 480,000 | 500,000 | 520,000 | +8.3% |
| Tungsten powder (RMB/kg) | 760 | 750 | 800 | +5.3% |
| WC powder (RMB/kg) | 730 | 720 | 770 | +5.5% |
| Carbide rod scrap (RMB/kg) | 475 | 565 | 622 | +30.9% |
| Carbide blade scrap (RMB/kg) | 430 | 465 | 510 | +18.6% |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Company figures are as reported by the companies and summarised here. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
Chain Decode
The premium turned negative because both sides moved. China drill scrap rose and India FOB fell. But India FOB is a thin print: sellers are holding back, few offers are clearing, and the assessment moves on whatever trades. The better test is the domestic market.
Domestic buyers are paying above export parity. The domestic insert quote is now 111% of its FOB-equivalent in rupees, up from 95% a week ago. Domestic insert quotes rose 16.7% and rod quotes 23.1% in the week while FOB fell. Read the detail in Why Indian scrap is selling above export parity.
China scrap has stalled. Rod scrap has not moved for five sessions. The industry’s own commentary now mentions profit-taking and a widening price spread. Scrap is up 31% off the low while powder is up 5% and APT up 8% over the same period.
Powder is still not leading. Powder’s premium over its APT-equivalent cost was 17.2% on October 20 and 4.6% on October 30 on our calculation. Converters are absorbing the cost. See the powder squeeze.
Contract prices are still falling. The second-half October contract was 4.5% lower for ore and 7.1% lower for APT than second-half September. Spot has risen back to meet it. Explained in Tungsten long-term contract prices explained.
Decision Framework
| Test | If it passes | If it fails |
|---|---|---|
| Powder gains on APT | Real downstream buying | Supply-led bounce, like the first two |
| Rotterdam moves off its current level | Rise confirmed outside China | China-only move |
| China scrap rod breaks its five-session range on volume | Speculation resuming | Profit-taking continues |
| Next India FOB assessment rises | The inversion starts to close | FOB and domestic stay split |
The first two bounces gave back 23% and 38%. That is history, not a forecast. Full record: the three bounces.
Watchlist
| When | What | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 5 | Next India FOB assessment | Does FOB catch up with the domestic market? |
| Early November | First-half November contract prices | Contract against spot |
| Ongoing | Sangdong first commercial shipment (booked, delivery not yet confirmed) | First sizeable non-China mine volume |
| Dec 17 | Kalshi tungsten contract expiry | First public settlement of a tungsten price hedge |
| Jan 1, 2027 | US defence procurement clause | Premium for documented non-Chinese material |
Also This Week
- Tungsten recycling is growing fast
- How much new tungsten supply is coming outside China?
- US scrap export controls and the overhang
Indian grade ranges are on the India tungsten rates page, or sell your carbide scrap.
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