India’s FOB assessment reset sharply higher on Thursday, November 5: drill bits up 32.9% and inserts up 27.8%. The India premium over China drill scrap went from -9.8% on November 4, the lowest of the year, to +15.6% today. China’s rebound has now run 16 sessions, four Chinese carbide makers have announced price increases, and Rotterdam has still not moved.
The Index
| Scrap | Oct 30 to Nov 10 | Since the Oct low |
|---|---|---|
| India FOB drill bits 90%+ (Nov 5 assessment) | +32.9% | — |
| India FOB inserts | +27.8% | — |
| China drill scrap | +10.9% | +37.7% |
| China carbide rod scrap | +5.5% | +38.1% |
| India domestic insert quote | +17.1% | +36.7% since Oct 23 |
| Europe, Rotterdam APT | Flat | Flat |
| India FOB drill bits, premium over China drill scrap | Oct 15 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | 42.7% | -3.5% | -9.8% | 15.6% |
The premium stayed below 10% for nine sessions, the longest run this year (April had nine too). Then it reopened. All four closures this year have now reopened within ten sessions, which is a pattern from four cases, not a rule. Earlier analysis: The India premium has closed.
| China domestic | Oct 15 | Oct 30 | Nov 10 | Since Oct 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolframite 65% (RMB/t) | 305,000 | 350,000 | 375,000 | +23.0% |
| APT spot (RMB/t) | 480,000 | 520,000 | 550,000 | +14.6% |
| Tungsten powder (RMB/kg) | 760 | 800 | 840 | +10.5% |
| WC powder (RMB/kg) | 730 | 770 | 810 | +11.0% |
| Carbide rod scrap (RMB/kg) | 475 | 622 | 656 | +38.1% |
| Carbide blade scrap (RMB/kg) | 430 | 510 | 543 | +26.3% |
Ore is shown at 375,000. Some November 9 trade quotes ranged from 360,000 to 370,000, so the ore figure may be 1% to 4% above them.
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Company announcements and trade statistics are summarised from public reports. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
Chain Decode
Domestic quotes led the export assessment. Indian domestic insert quotes passed their FOB-equivalent value on October 27. The FOB assessment caught up on November 5, about seven sessions later. Domestic is now 103% of its FOB-equivalent, down from 111%. That is one observation. See why Indian scrap sold above export parity.
Spot has met the contract. A Chongyi producer’s November 5 contract was 375,000 for ore and 550,000 for APT, equal to spot. That is 4.7% and 5.8% above the Guangdong second-half October contract (different firms, so indicative). Smelters are about 8% under the break-even level used in September, down from 13% on October 30, so output cuts continue. Background: Tungsten long-term contract prices explained.
Importers are well in the money. Spot ore is about 29% above September’s average import cost. China’s September imports of tungsten products were already up 68.2% year on year. The October customs detail, due around November 20, will show whether tonnage is rising further.
Powder is moving with APT, not ahead of it. Powder’s premium over APT-equivalent cost went from 4.6% to 7.5% on one basis and from 8.0% to 7.2% on another (our calculations). Converters are neither being squeezed further nor clearly passing costs on yet.
Carbide Makers Raise Prices
Trade press reports that four Chinese cemented carbide producers announced price increases this week, citing higher tungsten raw material prices and production costs. No percentages were disclosed.
| Producer | Products | Effective |
|---|---|---|
| Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten | All cemented carbide products | Nov 10 |
| Zhuzhou Cemented Carbide Group, drill bit alloy division | Buttons, construction bits, PDC substrates | Nov 9 |
| Zigong Cemented Carbide | Mining and geological products | Nov 10 |
| Xiamen Golden Egret | Mining-grade alloy products | Nov 10 |
This is cost recovery after raw materials rose roughly 15% to 25% since mid-October. An announcement is not the same as acceptance: end users are buying to need and delaying projects. The squeeze on the other side is in the powder squeeze.
China’s September Trade Data
| September 2026 | Volume | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Imports, total tungsten products | 3,760 t | +68.2% |
| Imports, tungsten powder | 0.6 t | -81.3% |
| Exports, total tungsten products | 1,030 t | -14.4% |
| Exports, tungsten powder | 12.0 t | -90.7% |
| Exports, ammonium metatungstate | 260 t | +324.3% |
| Exports, ferrotungsten | 113 t | +34.3% |
Mind the bases: powder imports were under one tonne, and metatungstate exports were about 61 tonnes a year earlier. The pattern is China importing raw material while shipping less powder and more of other forms. Whether metatungstate sits outside the export licensing list is an open question we have not verified.
Stockpile and Sangdong: Confirmed and Claimed
- Reported: the US Defense Logistics Agency has committed $2 billion in FY2026 across rare earths, tungsten, titanium, antimony, high-purity aluminium and vanadium pentoxide, per a November 7 report. No quantities are given. It is unclear whether this overlaps with the earlier Elmet deal.
- Claimed: Almonty’s CEO says in a newsletter that the first commercial shipment has left the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Delivery and volumes are not confirmed.
- Context: one mine at record output covers a few percent of the ex-China gap. See how much new supply is coming.
Test Scorecard From Issue #5
| Test | Result |
|---|---|
| Powder gains on APT | Mixed: depends on the basis used |
| Rotterdam moves off its level | Not yet: flat for three weeks |
| China scrap rod breaks its range | Passed: +5.5% since Oct 30 |
| India FOB rises | Passed: +32.9% |
Two earlier bounces gave back 23% and 38%. This one is now +37.7% off its low in China drill scrap, against +41.8% for the first. That is history, not a forecast. See Trap or restock? and the three bounces.
Watchlist
| When | What | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 12 | Next India FOB assessment | Does the reset hold? |
| Nov 15 | Comment period closes on proposed Chinese export-technology curbs that mention fine tungsten wire for thin wafering | Technology, not product, controls |
| Around Nov 20 | October China customs detail | Import response to the rally |
| Dec 17 | Kalshi tungsten contract expiry | First public settlement of a tungsten price hedge |
| Jan 1, 2027 | US defence procurement clause | Premium for documented non-Chinese material |
Indian grade ranges are on the India tungsten rates page, or sell your carbide scrap.
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