New tungsten supply outside China is arriving, but in small amounts. The Dolphin mine in Tasmania produced 13,712 metric tonne units (MTU) of tungsten trioxide in the quarter to September 30, 2026, its record throughput. That is about 137 tonnes of WO₃ in three months.
The arithmetic
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Dolphin ore processed, quarter to Sep 30 | 81,098 t, a record (up from 77,953 t) |
| Average feed grade | 0.29% WO₃ |
| Concentrate produced | 13,712 MTU (about 137 t WO₃) |
| Annualised, if the quarter repeats | About 550 t WO₃ |
| Draft estimate of the 2026 ex-China supply gap | About 21,000 t WO₃ |
| Dolphin annualised as a share of that gap | About 2.6% |
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One MTU is 10 kg of WO₃. The annualised figure is our arithmetic from one quarter and is not company guidance. The gap figure is from a draft industry analysis, so treat it as indicative.
The wider pipeline
- Sangdong, South Korea: first commercial shipment booked for late October; full output expected 2027–2028. See supply outside China.
- Mt Mulgine, Australia: phase 1 around Q2 2029.
- United States: an executive at a US developer, Guardian Metal, says the US has had no tungsten mine production for over ten years and that non-Chinese producers may need to add tens of thousands of tonnes a year, up to 50,000 t a year if Chinese export restrictions persist. That is the company’s view.
What it means
One working mine at record output covers a few percent of the gap. Meaningful volume comes from a pipeline arriving from 2027 to 2029, and scrap fills part of the difference before then. That is why scrap and documented origin carry a premium and why Rotterdam and China behave differently. See the China–Europe gap.
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