Is tungsten in shortage this year? Both answers are partly true, depending on where you stand. Outside China, supply is tight. Inside China, the market is soft. The shortage is regional, and that is why prices in Rotterdam and prices in China have moved so differently.
Two markets, two pictures
| Inside China | Outside China | |
|---|---|---|
| Price direction since April | Scrap -53.4% | Rotterdam APT -12.1% |
| Demand | Downstream restocking weak | Defence, aerospace and tooling buyers need documented supply |
| Supply response | Production cuts, producers defending an APT price | New mines not yet at scale |
| Balance | Soft | Short |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
The ex-China gap
A draft S&P Global analysis estimates an ex-China supply gap of about 21 thousand tonnes of WO₃ in 2026, and an incentive price of about $90 per kg WO₃ to bring new mines forward. Because it is a draft, treat the figures as indicative.
Where new supply is
- Sangdong, South Korea: first commercial shipment is booked for around Oct 24. Full output is expected in 2027 to 2028.
- Australia and others: projects such as Mt Mulgine have phase 1 timelines around Q2 2029.
- Recycling: scrap supplies about 35% of demand and is the only supply that can respond within weeks. This is why scrap is where the pressure appears first.
More in supply outside China and the China-Europe price gap.
What this means
- A global shortage and a falling China price can both be true, because China is a closed pricing zone with its own supply discipline.
- The ex-China gap will not close in 2026. New mine volume arrives in 2027 and beyond, and scrap fills part of the difference in between.
- For India, the relevant question is which market your buyer prices off. A buyer pricing off China moves with China. A buyer needing documented non-Chinese origin is in the ex-China market.
Supply and demand do not predict a price by themselves. Weekly numbers are in WolfTrack Issue #4.
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