A common explanation for tungsten’s run is the US restriction on Chinese-origin tungsten. The dates and the price record do not support that as the main driver. The rule matters, but mostly as a source of future demand for documented non-Chinese material, not as the cause of the move so far.
The timeline
| Date | Event | Price context |
|---|---|---|
| Early April | Highest point in our 2026 records for both China scrap and Rotterdam APT | Peak |
| April to May | China ore and scrap fall sharply | China drill scrap -35% by late May |
| Jun 25 | A Chinese mine halts | China scrap already down |
| Aug 27 | US DPA restriction window begins | Prices drifting lower |
| Sep 7 to 8 | A Jiangxi APT smelter halts; Zimbabwe ban | China scrap falling |
| Oct | China scrap reaches its 2026 low | Down 53% from April |
| Jan 1, 2027 | US sourcing clause for defence manufacturers takes effect | Not yet in force |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
What the timeline says
- Prices peaked before the restriction window opened. The 2026 high came months before August 27, and prices fell through that window.
- The US clause is not yet in force. The January 1 sourcing deadline is a future event. It can affect expectations, but it cannot explain price moves that came before it.
- Chinese policy and domestic supply discipline explain more. Export licensing, mining quotas, mine and smelter halts and the producers’ APT guidance price all show up in Chinese domestic prices, which are what moved most.
- The US effect shows up in the gap, not the level. Rotterdam, where non-Chinese buyers pay, fell far less (12.1%) than China (53.4%). That gap is what you would expect if the non-China market is supply-short while China is soft.
What the rule changes for scrap
For Indian dealers the practical impact is documentation. Buyers tied to Western defence supply chains are asking for origin papers. A premium may attach to documented non-Chinese material, but the record so far is that premiums open and close with the China price. Background: Tungsten scrap is going strategic, and the supply picture in where the shortage is.
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