India’s FOB assessment fell again on Thursday, October 22: drill bits down 10.0% and inserts down 11.3%. In the same week China’s scrap price rebounded 17.9% from its October 15 low. India’s premium over China drill scrap is now 8.9%. Here is the data, what it means, and what to watch.
The Index
| Scrap | Move | Window |
|---|---|---|
| India FOB drill bits 90%+ | -10.0% | Oct 15 to Oct 22 |
| India FOB inserts | -11.3% | Oct 15 to Oct 22 |
| China drill scrap | +17.9% | Oct 15 low to Oct 23 |
| China rod scrap | +10.1% | Oct 15 low to Oct 23 |
| Europe drill and insert scrap, Rotterdam APT | Flat | Oct 15 to Oct 23 |
| India FOB drill bits, premium over China drill scrap | Oct 15 | Oct 22 | Oct 23 | Median, Apr–Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | 42.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 23% |
China’s rise alone would have cut the premium from 42.7% to 21.0%. The India cut took it the rest of the way. Deeper read: The India premium has closed. History says closed premiums do not stay closed.
| China domestic | Oct 15 | Low (Oct 16–19) | Oct 23 | From low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolframite 65% (RMB/t) | 305,000 | 295,000 | 330,000 | +11.9% |
| APT spot (RMB/t) | 480,000 | 460,000 | 500,000 | +8.7% |
| Tungsten powder (RMB/kg) | 760 | 730 | 750 | +2.7% |
| WC powder (RMB/kg) | 730 | 700 | 720 | +2.9% |
| Carbide rod scrap (RMB/kg) | 475 | 475 | 565 | +18.9% |
| Carbide blade scrap (RMB/kg) | 430 | 430 | 465 | +8.1% |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
Chain Decode
The China bounce is supply-led. CTIA’s October 23 weekly report attributes the rebound to concentrated APT buying by large producers, suppliers holding back offers and widespread production cuts. Downstream restocking stayed weak. APT at RMB 500,000 sits exactly at the producers’ guidance price, so it is an administered level, not a price discovered by heavy trading.
Scrap led, powder lagged. Rod scrap rose 18.9% from its low while tungsten powder rose 2.7%. CTIA ties the scrap gain largely to trader speculation. Powder’s premium over its APT-equivalent cost fell from 17.2% on October 19 to 7.8% on October 23, because APT rose faster than powder. Processors are absorbing the difference.
India completed the correction by cutting. Indian offers had been priced almost 60% above China on October 14. China rising 17.9% closed about half of that. The India FOB cut closed the rest, so the correction came from both sides.
Importers put a ceiling on the rebound. A September customs-data analysis put the average concentrate import cost at about RMB 258,000 per standard tonne before VAT, roughly RMB 291,500 with VAT. At early-October spot of about RMB 260,000 importers were about 10.8% under water. At RMB 330,000 importing pays again, and that brings tonnage back to ports.
Two price benchmarks for one product. CME will list cash-settled tungsten futures on COMEX by early Q1 2027, settled on the Fastmarkets Rotterdam APT assessment. A Kalshi contract that expires December 17 settles on a different assessor’s Rotterdam APT. Read the full structure in Will tungsten trade like copper or tin?
Decision Framework
- Signal to watch: tungsten powder and WC powder getting back above their October 15 levels (RMB 760 and 730). Powder is where real downstream buying shows up.
- Condition: if APT holds at RMB 500,000 but powder does not follow within two assessments, the rebound is supply-led and thin. Read the test list in Trap or restock?
- Action for dealers: quote off China’s daily print, not last Thursday’s FOB, and keep grade and origin papers ready.
Watchlist
| When | What | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | First commercial Sangdong shipment (booked, not yet confirmed delivered) | First sizeable non-China mine volume in years |
| Thursday, Oct 29 | Next India FOB assessment | Tests whether the premium stays closed |
| Late October | New ore and APT long-term contract prices | Sets the floor for the chain |
| Dec 17 | Kalshi tungsten contract expiry | First public settlement of a tungsten price hedge |
| Jan 1, 2027 | US defence procurement clause takes effect | Premium for documented non-Chinese material |
| Early Q1 2027 | CME tungsten futures launch, pending regulatory review | Forward curve for ex-China APT |
More This Week
- Is this the third bounce since May?
- Is the price surge an effect of the US rule, or something else?
- Tungsten supply and demand in 2026: where the shortage is
See Indian grade ranges on the India tungsten rates page, or sell your carbide scrap.
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