CME plans to list cash-settled tungsten futures on COMEX by early Q1 2027, pending regulatory review. A separate Kalshi contract on tungsten already exists. Does that make tungsten the next copper, or the next tin? On the evidence so far, it looks closer to tin, and the reasons are structural.
What is changing
- A financial wrapper is arriving. The planned CME contract settles against the Fastmarkets Rotterdam APT assessment, giving ex-China producers and buyers a way to hedge.
- There are already two benchmarks. A Kalshi contract expiring December 17 settles against a different assessor’s Rotterdam APT. Two assessors can print different numbers on the same day.
What copper has, and tungsten lacks
| Feature | Copper | Tin | Tungsten today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange-traded benchmark | Deep, long-established | Exists, thinner | Not yet; futures planned |
| One reference price | Yes | Largely | No: at least two assessors |
| Physical form traded | Cathode, standard grades | Standard ingot | Ore, APT, oxide, powder, carbide, scrap in many grades |
| Dominant supplier | No | Concentrated | China, heavily |
| Recycled material priced | Mostly linked to benchmark | Partly | No benchmark; scrap is about 35% of demand |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
The comparison reflects our understanding of those markets; it is a framing, not a rule.
Why tungsten behaves more like tin
- One benchmark covers one slice. A Rotterdam APT contract hedges ex-China APT. It does not cover China domestic prices, which this year moved four times further than Rotterdam, and it does not cover scrap.
- Basis risk is large. From April, China drill scrap fell 53.4% while Rotterdam APT fell 12.1%. A hedger holding scrap against an APT contract would have been mostly unhedged.
- Grade fragmentation. Drill bits, inserts, rods, rings and sludge each trade at different levels, and in India at different premiums to China. See the India premium record.
What it means for India
A listed contract will give the market a reference point and, over time, a forward curve for ex-China APT. It will not replace the weekly India assessment or a dealer’s grade-by-grade quote. The more useful skill for an Indian dealer is to know the gap between a benchmark and the material actually being sold, and to record it consistently. That series, not the futures contract, is the one nobody else keeps.
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