China’s drill scrap price has bounced about 18% off its October low. It is the third sharp China-led bounce since late May. The first two did not hold. Whether the third is different is the question the data can test, but not yet answer.
The three bounces
| Bounce | Window | China drill scrap | Rotterdam APT over the same window | China scrap from the peak, to the next low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 22 to Jun 9 | +41.8% | +1.6% | -23.4% by Jul 16 |
| 2 | Jul 16 to late Aug | +9.1% | 0.0% | -38.1% by Oct 19 |
| 3 | Oct 19 to Oct 23 | +17.7% | 0.0% | Open |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Moves are percentage changes. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation and not a price forecast. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
What the table shows
- Each bounce was China-led. The European APT assessment barely moved in any of the three. A rally that Europe does not confirm is a domestic Chinese move, not a global repricing.
- Each bounce was followed by a lower low. The June peak was followed by a 23.4% fall. The August level was followed by a 38.1% fall.
- Bounce 1 was the only one with real ore support. Wolframite rose 26.1% over that window. This time ore is up 11.9% off its low, but powder is up only about 3%.
- The overall trend is still down. China drill scrap is down 53.4% since April 2. Rotterdam APT is down 12.1% since April 10. China fell four times as far as Europe.
Is the third different?
Some parts of the picture are new: importers are now underwater on concentrate at spot, producers have set an APT guidance price at RMB 500,000, and production cuts are widespread. These are supply-side stabilisers. What has not shown up yet is the demand side: powder buying, a Rotterdam move, or restocking orders. The checklist is in Trap or restock?
Three bounces with the same shape is a pattern worth tracking, not proof of a fourth. The record says only that bounces so far have failed to hold, and that the market has so far not paid up for them outside China. Weekly detail is in WolfTrack Issue #4.
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