The floor is broken. China’s tungsten concentrate market found support at roughly CNY 405,000 per ton twice this year — first May 25–27, 2026, when 65% wolframite concentrate bottomed at CNY 400,500 and rebounded CNY 10,000 in two trading sessions, and again July 14–17, when it sat flat at CNY 405,000 for three straight sessions before recovering to CNY 410,000 (publicly reported daily pricing). Two revivals at the same level in four months is a real technical floor, not a coincidence. Spot 65% concentrate slid to CNY 400,000 on September 24, the bottom of that zone, and to CNY 395,000 on September 28, below it. On September 28, a Guangdong enterprise also cut its long-term contract price for 55% concentrate to CNY 375,000/ton, matching where 55% spot now trades, with no confirmed new floor beneath it yet. Eight days earlier, a Chongyi (Jiangxi) enterprise had already cut its own contract price by CNY 13,000–20,000. Two contract cuts in eight days, alongside spot breaking a floor that survived two previous tests — that’s the pattern Indian sellers need to read correctly this week, not just the headline number.
The September 28 Cut — Numbers in Full
The Guangdong enterprise’s long-term agreement purchasing prices for the second half of September (all figures VAT-inclusive):
| Grade | New LTC | Previous LTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% Black Tungsten Concentrate | CNY 375,000/t | CNY 413,000/t | −CNY 38,000 |
| 55% Scheelite Concentrate | CNY 374,000/t | CNY 412,000/t | −CNY 38,000 |
| APT (Grade 0) | CNY 560,000/t | CNY 600,000/t | −CNY 40,000 |
Data and sources: based on publicly available data on the internet, compiled for general information only. Long-term agreement quotes released September 28, 2026. Figures are for reference only and not a buy/sell recommendation — consult a professional before trading.
Second Cut in Eight Days — Why This One Matters More
Compare the two moves directly. On September 20, a Chongyi enterprise cut its APT LTC from CNY 600,000 to CNY 580,000 — a CNY 20,000 reduction that moved the contract price from a small premium to a small discount against where spot APT was trading (CNY 590,000–595,000 at the time). That was the first step down: contracts stopped defending a premium over spot.
The Guangdong cut on September 28 is bigger, and it resets the whole level. The new APT LTC of CNY 560,000 sits inside this week’s spot trading range of CNY 560,000–570,000. Concentrate tells the same story: the new CNY 375,000 LTC matches the reported spot range of CNY 375,000–380,000 almost exactly. In the eight days since the first cut, spot 65% concentrate has slipped from CNY 405,000 to CNY 395,000, and the new contract prices now sit inside today’s spot ranges. That’s the difference between buyers slowing the bleeding and buyers accepting where spot has settled.
Trade reports for the same week describe concentrate trading as thin, with smelters buying only to cover rigid demand, upstream holders actively releasing inventory, and high-priced APT transactions difficult to secure. None of that reads as a market finding a floor. It reads as a market where sellers are more anxious to move material than buyers are to acquire it — ahead of a week-long shutdown that is about to remove even that buying interest.
This Isn’t Only a China Story
The domestic LTC cuts are happening alongside a pullback in the export-facing benchmark too. European APT has eased to USD 2,700–2,900/mtu, down 10.8% from its recent peak. Read that number in context, though: it’s still up 204.4% year-to-date. This is a correction inside a historic bull run, not a reversal of it. The China domestic cuts and the European pullback are both consistent with the same thing — a market pausing to digest a year of extraordinary gains, right as its two biggest buying regions (China’s smelters and Western manufacturers) both go quiet for scheduled holidays in the first half of October.
What This Means for Indian Scrap Prices This Week
Indian scrap prices have been weakening since mid-September, following China’s first contract cut. TungstenIndia publishes its own Indian local rates every Thursday. They are independent offers based on the market we see, not a conversion of any third-party benchmark.
Two things to hold in your head at once. First: the weakness since mid-September already reflects the September 20 Chongyi cut — that is old news. Second: the September 28 Guangdong cut you’re reading about right now has not fully fed through to Indian prices yet. On the China-to-India transmission pattern this desk has tracked all year, that typically shows up one to two weeks later. Which means the pressure from this week’s news is still ahead of the market, not behind it.
There’s a calendar complication on top of that. China’s National Day holiday runs October 1–7 — Golden Week. Our next Indian local rates go out on Thursday, October 1, right as Chinese trading desks go dark, so expect limited fresh Chinese price discovery behind them. The number that actually tells you where this settles is the one after China reopens on October 8.
What Indian Dealers Should Actually Do This Week
- Don’t accept a discount based on news that isn’t priced in yet. If a buyer cites the Guangdong cut to push your quote down this week, ask what specific price move justifies going below current Indian local rates today, not what happened in China on paper.
- Expect quiet, not urgency, from China-linked buyers this week and next. Golden Week removes Chinese buying interest for a full week. If you need to move material for cash flow, price for a thin market rather than waiting for a bid that won’t show up until buyers are back at their desks.
- Treat October 8 as the real signal, not this week. Whether Chinese manufacturers rebuild inventory after the holiday or continue sitting on the sidelines is what actually determines the next leg — not the LTC number itself.
None of this is a signal to sell or hold — it’s the context to negotiate from instead of a number someone else hands you. For the full weekly trade-signal read, see WolfTrack.
What We’re Watching Next
- October 1 Indian local rates — likely thin, Golden Week-affected
- October 8 China reopening — the first real test of Q4 demand
- Whether other Chinese enterprises follow Guangdong and Chongyi with further LTC cuts before the holiday
- Whether concentrate spot (CNY 375,000–380,000) finds support or keeps drifting into Golden Week
FAQ
Why did China cut tungsten prices again in September 2026?
Long-term contract prices had acted as a reference that supported the market. With demand weak after the Mid-Autumn Festival, intermediate inventories still high and trading thin ahead of the National Day holiday, leading buyers cut those contract prices on September 20 and again on September 28, down to where spot is trading. That removes a price reference that had been holding the market up.
Where can I see current Indian tungsten scrap rates?
TungstenIndia publishes its own Indian local rates every Thursday — see India Market Rates. They are independent offers, not a conversion of any third-party benchmark, and are for information only.
Will tungsten scrap prices in India fall further after this cut?
The September 28 Guangdong cut hasn’t fully fed through to Indian prices yet, and the transmission from China to India typically takes one to two weeks, so there is downside pressure still ahead of the market rather than behind it. China’s Golden Week (October 1–7) will limit fresh price discovery in the meantime — October 8, when Chinese buyers return, is the first real test of where this settles.
When will Chinese tungsten buyers return after Golden Week?
China’s National Day holiday runs October 1–7, 2026. Normal trading activity typically resumes October 8, which is the date to watch for the next real signal on Chinese demand.
Full weekly decode — signal read, timeline framework, and the complete India/China/Rotterdam breakdown — goes out to WolfTrack subscribers every Thursday by 8 PM IST.
For live reference prices, see the Global Tungsten Price Hub and India Market Rates.
