Published 14 October 2026. Tungsten prices in China are still falling. SMM and CTIA, the two main Chinese price reporters, now put most products roughly 65 to 70 percent below their 2026 peaks. This page sets out what the two sources actually say about why, and what it does and does not mean for buyers and sellers in India.
The short version
- China’s domestic market is oversupplied with material and short of buyers. Europe is not.
- SMM says smelters built up ore stock during maintenance shutdowns, and Q4 mining quotas are ample, so some companies want to reduce inventory and recover cash.
- CTIA says speculators are liquidating and downstream buyers are buying only what they need.
- Neither source reports a confirmed restocking wave yet.
What the two reporters say
| Item | Source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| Wolframite concentrate | SMM, 13 Oct | Down 67.92% from the 12 March record high as of 12 October |
| Wolframite concentrate | CTIA, 14 Oct | Down 70.0% from peak, down 31.5% year to date |
| APT (China) | CTIA, 14 Oct | Down 67.8% from peak, down 26.9% year to date |
| Scrap tungsten carbide rod | CTIA, 14 Oct | Down 69.4% from peak, down 30.2% year to date |
| APT (Europe) | CTIA, 14 Oct | Down 14.0% from peak, but up 193.5% year to date |
The European line is the one to notice. China is down about 27 percent this year. Europe is up almost threefold. Our earlier page on [the China versus Europe price gap](/china-vs-europe-tungsten-price-gap-october-2026/) explains why the two markets have separated.
Why prices keep falling: four causes the sources name
1. Weak end-use demand. SMM lists this first. Orders from cemented carbide users are slow. 2. Inventory at the smelters. SMM says maintenance shutdowns built up raw material inventory, and smelting-side stocks are high. 3. Ample Q4 quotas. SMM says some companies want to cut stock and raise cash, which means selling. 4. Speculators leaving. CTIA says spot selling has intensified as speculators liquidate and some holders sell to recover capital. It calls the result a negative feedback loop: upstream selling pushes prices down, downstream buyers wait for lower prices, and orders stay weak.
A short-term move we can see in daily data
SMM’s daily series shows the fall has not slowed. Between 8 and 14 October, ore fell about 15 percent and Chinese drill scrap fell about 13 percent. Ore alone fell about 7 percent across 12 to 14 October. These are our own calculations from SMM daily data, shown as percentages only.
What would end the fall
SMM lists three things to watch:
- Whether lower prices bring back downstream restocking.
- Q4 cemented carbide orders. Q4 is a traditional minor peak season, so it is the test of demand.
- Export demand. SMM notes the wider price gap between China and overseas could support Q4 exports, and pre-Christmas stockpiling by overseas producers could absorb Chinese inventory.
CTIA expects a Q4 restocking cycle but says confidence that a bottom has formed is not yet firm. It expects weak fluctuation without a major positive catalyst.
What this means for India (our view)
This section is our reading, not a quoted statement.
- Chinese prices are no longer a floor you can rely on. If you price Indian scrap by looking at China, the reference is falling.
- The two-market split is the main structural fact. Ex-China supply is tight and Chinese supply is not. Rules such as the US sourcing restrictions from 1 January 2027 (see [our page on scrap export restrictions](/tungsten-scrap-export-restrictions-us-vietnam-2026/)) keep that gap in place.
- Do not read one number. Compare at least two sources and the date of each.
- Sellers with clean, graded material are better placed than sellers of mixed lots.
If you hold carbide scrap and want an offer, use our [sell carbide scrap form](/sell-carbide-scrap/). If you buy or sell tungsten products, register in the [Trade Directory](/trade-directory/).
This page is market information, not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
Why are Chinese tungsten prices falling?
SMM points to weak end-use demand, high smelter inventory after maintenance shutdowns, and ample Q4 mining quotas. CTIA adds speculative liquidation and cautious downstream buying.
How far have tungsten prices fallen from the peak?
According to CTIA on 14 October, Chinese APT is down 67.8 percent from peak and wolframite concentrate is down 70.0 percent. SMM puts wolframite down 67.92 percent from the 12 March record.
Are European tungsten prices falling too?
European APT is down 14.0 percent from peak but up 193.5 percent year to date, per CTIA. The market outside China has held far better.
When will the fall end?
Neither SMM nor CTIA gives a date. SMM watches downstream restocking, Q4 carbide orders and exports. CTIA says confidence in a bottom is not yet firm.
What should Indian scrap holders do?
Compare more than one price source, grade and sort material, and sell to buyers who can document it. This is general information, not financial advice.
