India FOB tungsten carbide drill-bit scrap (90%+) fell to $95.0/kg on October 1, 2026 — down 34.5% from April 2026’s peak of $145.0/kg. September alone took 17% off the price, the fastest single-month fall since the market peaked.
From today, WolfTrack is free for everyone — see the note at the end.
The Index
| Period | India FOB Drill | Change from April peak |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 (peak) | $145.0/kg | — |
| May 6 | $140.0/kg | -3.4% |
| Jun 1 | $105.0/kg | -27.6% |
| Jul 1 | $130.0/kg | -10.3% |
| Aug 3 | $127.5/kg | -12.1% |
| Sep 1 | $115.0/kg | -20.7% |
| Oct 1 (today) | $95.0/kg | -34.5% |
| This week | Sep 30 | Oct 1 | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| India FOB Drill | $97.5/kg | $95.0/kg | -2.6% |
| India FOB Inserts | $92.5/kg | $92.5/kg | Flat |
| Rotterdam APT | $3,000/mtu | $2,900/mtu | -3.3% |
| USD/INR | 95.85 | 96.25 | Rupee weaker |
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation. Consult a qualified professional before trading.
Supply vs. Demand — The Gap That Explains Everything
| Supply | Demand | |
|---|---|---|
| Status | Tightening | Weakening |
| Evidence | China’s Luoyang Yulu tungsten JV has been fully shut since June 30 (read the Xiamen Tungsten–CMOC dispute); Chinese smelters running near 70% utilization | China’s September–October restocking season never showed up; Indian buyers have been largely inactive since September 2 |
| Net effect | Should support price — but demand weakness is overpowering it. China’s own concentrate price fell from a March 2026 peak of CNY 1,051,200/t to CNY 409,300/t by September 2026 — a 61% fall with real tonnage already removed from the market. That combination only happens when demand is weaker than the supply story suggests. | |
What this means for your decisions: don’t wait for a supply-disruption headline to put a floor under prices — this one didn’t. The turn comes when Chinese and Indian buyers actually restock, not when another mine goes offline.
Sentiment vs. Signals
| What it says | What it’s worth | |
|---|---|---|
| Sentiment (headlines) | “Supercycle,” “historic squeeze,” “China losing control of tungsten” | Noise unless backed by a transacted price |
| Signal (data) | Rotterdam -3.3% this week, India FOB -34.5% since April, China concentrate -61% from March peak | This is what should move your buy/sell decision |
Every claim in this issue is checked against a transacted price before it’s printed. When the headline and the data disagree, we print the data.
New Supply Forming vs. Existing Supply
| Existing supply (now) | New supply (forming) | |
|---|---|---|
| China | ~70% smelter utilization; Luoyang Yulu JV offline since June 30 | China’s export list locked to 15 companies for 2026–2027 under a state trading system — supply controlled by decree, not just geology |
| Western | Scrap-dependent (India, Europe, Japan) | Almonty Sangdong (South Korea) — certified Sep 17, shipping now, 90%+ of Phase I locked into a 21-year offtake with Global Tungsten & Powders; Elmet/Blue Moon Springer restart (Nevada) — end-2027; Elmet APT plant — mid-2028; Allied Critical Metals Borralha (Portugal) — ~2027; Vila Verde (Portugal) — first concentrate Q4 2026, small scale |
| Recycling | India’s unorganised scrap trade | Japan — $52M expansion, doubling recycling-linked APT capacity to 2,400t by 2029 |
Every non-China project announced this year lands in 2027–2029. Nothing new hits the market before Q4 2026 closes — China’s own smelter discipline still sets the near-term price.
Demand — What’s Surging, What Isn’t
| Demand source | Trend | Why |
|---|---|---|
| AI chips / data centers / semiconductors | Surging | New structural driver — tungsten used in chip interconnects and thermal-stress components; APT went from under $500/mtu in 2025 to over $2,500/mtu by March 2026 on this alone, per industry reporting |
| Defense / aerospace (Western) | Surging | $450M US Department of War investment, $2B DLA contract, $36M Elmet aerospace-alloy contract — all September 2026, all state-funded and largely price-insensitive |
| Cutting tools / drill bits / inserts (core scrap market) | Flat to weak | This is the base our Index tracks — metalworking, oil & gas, mining, construction. No restocking signal; India buyer freeze since Sep 2 sits here |
| Construction / general industrial scrap | Weak | EU in-warehouse scrap fell sharply in a single session in late September — a sign of liquidation, not buying |
The uncomfortable fact for scrap dealers: the new demand (AI, defense, semiconductors) is a different buyer, grade, and supply chain than drill-bit and insert scrap. Headline prices are increasingly written by the new demand; actual India buy/sell prices are still set by the old, weaker one. Don’t let AI-driven headlines convince you the ground-floor scrap market is strong — it isn’t, right now.
Geopolitics — Who’s Trying to Control Tungsten
| Actor | Move | Date | Intent |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Export list locked to 15 companies, state trading system | Dec 26, 2025 | Control who exports and how much — the same model used for rare earths |
| United States | $450M Department of War investment + $2B DLA stockpile contract (Elmet) | Sep 14, 2026 | Build a non-China supply chain, rebuild the National Defense Stockpile |
| United States | Mine-to-source traceability rule for defense procurement | Effective Jan 1, 2027 | Structurally locks Chinese-origin material out of US defense supply, price aside |
| United States | Tariff exemption for non-Chinese tungsten, including Indian | Sep 8, 2026 | Zero tariff for India-origin scrap/concentrate; Chinese material still faces a 25% Section 301 tariff |
| Vietnam | Draft ban on raw ore/concentrate exports; refined products (APT) exempted | Sep 2026 (draft) | Push value-add onshore — favors Vietnam’s own refiners |
Every government move this year is about excluding China from the supply chain — not about adding more tungsten to the world. That’s a squeeze building for 2027 and beyond, not a price lever for today.
India Context — What India Should Be Doing
India’s National Critical Mineral Mission runs a strategic stockpile programme (NCMS) under KABIL, with ₹500 crore allocated through FY2031, targeting a six-month domestic-demand buffer. The five minerals covered: lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earths. Tungsten is not on the list.
That’s a real gap. Tungsten is explicitly classified defense-critical by both the US and China. China controls it through the same 15-company export-whitelist mechanism it uses for rare earths. India has effectively no mine production of scale and is entirely import- and scrap-dependent — while sitting on one of the world’s largest unorganised tungsten carbide scrap pools, with no domestic strategic-reserve mechanism to formalise it.
What India should do:
- Add tungsten to the NCMM priority list — the KABIL/NCMS infrastructure already exists; this is a policy addition, not a new programme.
- Formalise the scrap-recycling channel as a quasi-domestic supply source. India’s own export data shows only five verified exporters and 34 total shipments through April 2026 — the market is essentially unorganised at export level, even as Western recyclers pay $140–155/kg against India’s own $115 FOB.
- Use the US tariff exemption window to build direct export relationships now, before Sangdong and Mt Mulgine close the premium gap in 2028–2029.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the India tungsten scrap price today?
India FOB price for tungsten carbide drill-bit scrap (90%+) is $95.0/kg as of October 1, 2026, down from $145.0/kg in April 2026.
Why are tungsten prices falling despite China supply cuts?
Demand from Chinese and Indian buyers has weakened faster than supply has tightened. China’s September–October restocking season did not materialise in 2026, and Indian buyers have been largely inactive since September 2.
Is tungsten included in India’s critical minerals stockpile?
No. India’s National Critical Mineral Stockpile (NCMS) covers lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earths — tungsten is not currently included.
Watchlist
- China drill/rod scrap price — hasn’t printed since Sep 30
- Next Thursday’s India FOB — a fifth straight down month would be the longest slide since launch
- Jiangxi smelter utilization — further cuts below 70% mean more pain before any floor
- NCMM mineral list revisions — any addition of tungsten would be a first policy signal for India
WolfTrack Is Now Free — For Every Dealer in India
From today, every WolfTrack issue publishes here, free, with no subscription required. We’re ending the paid tier because the goal was never a few hundred paying readers — it’s being the price reference the entire Indian tungsten trade checks before it moves. That only works if everyone can read it. So now everyone can.
Same format every week — the Index, the Chain Decode, the Trading Framework, the Watchlist. Same standard: verified data, named sources, one clear read, never a guess dressed up as certainty.
For live reference prices, see the Global Tungsten Price Hub and India Market Rates.
