Updated October 8, 2026. Information only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or trade.
The short answer
Indian carbide scrap rates dropped this week. Button scrap (drill bits) opened lower at the bottom of its range, and inserts and rod scrap fell by Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 per kg on our weekly India tungsten rates page. Yet the world is short of tungsten. Both facts are true at once, because there are two tungsten markets: a China domestic market that is correcting, and an outside-China market that is tight. Indian scrap sits between them.
Why prices rose so fast in the first place
Tungsten is a small market with one dominant supplier. According to The Oregon Group (August 28, 2026), citing S&P Global and Project Blue:
- Global mine output was about 85,000 tonnes in 2025. China produced about 67,000 tonnes, roughly 79%.
- China controls about 85% of ammonium paratungstate (APT) refining capacity.
- Chinese shipments of controlled tungsten products fell about 40% in 2025.
- The APT benchmark rose from about US$83/kg WO3 in January 2026 to about US$340/kg in July, an increase of around 310%.
China introduced export licensing in February 2025 and tightened it further in 2026. A publicly available trade report on China’s May trade data shows the result: tungsten exports in May were down 17.9% year on year, and APT exports were down 82% for January to May.
What actually happened to China prices
China’s domestic prices peaked in March and then corrected hard. Orient Securities (August 20, 2026) reports that domestic tungsten concentrate fell more than 60% from its March peak of RMB 1 million per tonne. Our own daily price log shows the correction continuing into autumn: from September 30 to October 8, China’s domestic carbide rod scrap fell about 14.5% (to RMB 532/kg) and carbide blade scrap about 14.4% (to RMB 475/kg), while ore fell about 3.9%, APT about 1.8% and tungsten powder about 1.2%.
Scrap fell fastest for a simple reason. During China’s National Day holiday (October 1 to 8) trade was thin and smelters bought only against firm orders. Scrap is the cheapest and most flexible input to cut first. The upstream chain, which depends on long-term contracts, moves slowly.
Why Europe and the United States did not follow
Outside China, supply is the problem, not demand. Our log shows Europe’s APT range at US$2,700–2,900 per mtu this week, eased from US$2,900–3,000 but still about three times the China-implied level. A publicly available trade report describes the market as “less globalized and more fragmented”, with prices inside and outside China drifting apart. Tool makers are passing costs on. In its May earnings call, Kennametal said it expected price and tariff surcharges to average about 35% year on year in its fourth quarter.
The part that matters for Indian dealers: the origin clock
Two policy dates matter more than any weekly price.
- August 27, 2026: the United States began restricting tungsten scrap exports (Orient Securities).
- January 1, 2027: US defence procurement rules restrict tungsten sourced from China, Russia, North Korea and Iran (Oregon Group).
Recycling supplies about 35% of global tungsten demand and about 60% of APT output outside China (Oregon Group). Scrap with a clean, documented, non-Chinese origin becomes more valuable to Western buyers as the 2027 date approaches. Indian scrap with chain-of-custody paperwork is one of the few sources that qualifies. The practical lesson is to keep records of where your material came from.
Signals to watch over the next 2 to 6 weeks
These are indicators, not forecasts or price targets. They show which way pressure builds on Indian scrap rates.
| If you see | Pressure on Indian scrap rates | Why |
|---|---|---|
| China scrap keeps falling after the holiday reopening | Down | India has started to follow China’s scrap move. A further China fall widens the gap. |
| China drill scrap recovers toward US$100/kg | Up, and fast | Indian buyers who stopped bidding return at the same time. |
| Late-October ore and APT long-term contract prices set lower than the last one | Down | The long-term contract price is the floor the whole chain references. |
| Late-October contract prices hold or rise | Stabilising | Smelters cannot buy below cost for long, and some cut output. |
| China extends the export-control truce | Mild down outside China | Less panic buying in Europe and the US. |
| The truce lapses with no extension (exact date to be confirmed) | Up outside China | Licence risk returns. |
| The US keeps the January 1, 2027 rule without waivers | Up for documented non-Chinese scrap | Defence buyers need compliant material. |
| China’s concentrate imports slow (they were up about 104% for January to May) | Down | Imports were propping up the bid. |
How to read it: the first two rows are the ones you can check yourself each Thursday against local offers. The rest set direction over months, not days.
What dealers should do with this
- Quote only against verified offers, and review your rate every week.
- Do not hold unsold stock on the assumption that last week’s price returns.
- Sort and document your lots by grade and origin. It costs little and raises the value of what you sell.
- To sell carbide scrap, use the sell carbide scrap page or the trade directory.
Follow the weekly WolfTrack issue for the Thursday update.
FAQ
Why are tungsten scrap prices falling in India if tungsten is scarce?
Because China’s domestic market is correcting after a peak, and Indian scrap follows China’s scrap prices with a lag of days to weeks. Scarcity outside China does not automatically lift Indian rates.
What is APT and why does it matter?
Ammonium paratungstate is the main intermediate between ore and tungsten products. China controls about 85% of APT refining, so APT prices set the tone for the rest of the chain.
What is the US January 1, 2027 rule?
Under US defence procurement rules, restrictions apply to tungsten sourced from China, Russia, North Korea or Iran. It raises the value of material with clean, documented non-Chinese origin.
Where can I see weekly Indian rates?
On the India tungsten rates page, reviewed every Thursday.
Sources
- The Oregon Group, tungsten price shock signals deeper supply crisis (Aug 28, 2026)
- Orient Securities via Tiger Brokers (Aug 20, 2026)
- Kennametal Q3 FY2026 earnings call highlights (Nasdaq, May 2026)
- Publicly available trade reports on China’s May tungsten trade data and on tungsten market structure
- TungstenIndia.com daily price log, Sep 30 to Oct 8, 2026
Prices compiled from publicly available market information and our own transaction data. No third-party source, platform, or company is represented as the basis for any rate shown. Information only — not a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified professional before trading and verify independently.
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